New York City’s migrant problems are spilling into the suburbs. It could harm the Democrats

Whoever wins the state’s 4th district next month – Anthony D’Esposito or Laura Gillen – sets the stage for the battle to the White House

Across New York City’s Queens county line you will find Nassau, home to district NY-04 where voters’ appetite for progressive politics is waning.
The finely balanced suburban Long Island congressional district is plagued by fears of crime and disorder leaking in from the city, fueled by immigration and an increasingly desperate scramble for homes.
The district is a must-win for Democrats to regain control of the House, and important for Republicans to maintain it.
But it is a microcosm for issues on a national scale. The vote is essentially a referendum on the top issues facing the next president – economy, immigration, and reproductive rights.
Who wins next month – a scandal-tinged incumbent and former cop Anthony D’Esposito, or Democrat Laura Gillen – sets the stage for the battle to the White House, alongside, of course, the twin peculiarities of Long Island politics: nepotism and corruption.
A win for Democrats would be a statement of intent – the party held it for 25 years, but lost the seat and three others in New York two years ago – along with a supermajority in the House – when they misjudged voters’ interest in liberal policies.
Hank Sheinkopf, a Veteran political strategist, says Democrats think the road to victory runs right through New York state.
“It does, except that Eric Adams is under indictment, migrants are all over New York City, rape is up, and suburbanites are fearful that all those problems can come over the county line and into their pristine suburbs.
“It’s tough for Democrats, but they might pull it out anyway because D’Esposito [the Republican candidate] has problems and it could flip.
“If Democrats don’t pick up the seats, it’ll be for those reasons.
“Crime, migrants, and corruption.”
Mayor Adams suggested that he was the target of a political takedown after being hit with a slew of corruption charges relating to his relationship with the Turkish Government.
He suggested that his criticism of the Biden administration’s immigration policy had singled him out as a troublemaker.
“Despite our pleas, when the federal government did nothing as its broken immigration policies overloaded our shelter system with no relief, I put the people of New York before party and politics,” he said. “I always knew that if I stood my ground for all of you, that I would be a target – and a target I became.”
Both national parties have been pouring money into the district – the second-wealthiest congressional district in New York, and among the wealthiest nationally.
It is an important campaign stop for New York’s low-polling Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul, who is facing her own re-election battle in 2026 amid her party’s response to the recent criminal indictment of Mayor Adams, also a Democrat, on bribery charges.
There are concerns that Gov. Hochul’s re-election bid could get tougher if Democrats lose NY-04, potentially setting a trend for traditionally loyal liberal voters to turn their backs on the party.
NY-04 is a classic suburban setup: a district that depends on commuter proximity to the city for its wealth but fears the city’s unruliness spilling over into its quiet streets, upscale shopping malls, and well-maintained parks and beaches.
Among voters’ concerns is the question of immigration and Mr. Biden’s open border policies that Kamala Harris, the Vice President, is only now making a political show of correcting.
“Competing with Americans for scarce homes is one of the most significant drivers of home prices in the country,” JD Vance, the Ohio Senator and Trump’s running mate, said earlier this week.
“It’s why we have massive increases in home prices that have happened right alongside massive increases in illegal aliens, alien populations under Kamala Harris’s leadership,” he said.
Suburban Long Islanders are alert to any spillover. Donna Johnson, 62, said she was “absolutely concerned.”
“We’re just a train-ride away from the city. Manhattan is disgusting now. I don’t like to go in there – and I moved here from Brooklyn,” she said.
The district, she said, used to be strongly Democrat. “But with all the Trump-Vance signs I see up, I think it’s changing more strongly Republican.” But it might not – in America’s divided political landscape, announcing one’s politics on the lawn is only for the strongly committed.
“This is a small community,” said one Long Beach resident. “People will vote for who they know. There’s not a lot of party loyalty here.”
Registered Democrat Jim Cannon, 67, said he was switching his vote.
“Biden doesn’t even know where he is and Democrats want to bring this country to its knees by letting everyone in. I don’t understand the Democrats.
“I just don’t get it. I’ll never vote Democrat again in my life.”
Asked if immigration was his main concern, Mr. Cannon said: “Eggs are twice as expensive. Mayonnaise is three times as expensive. Forget about bacon and steak.
“They’re bringing people in across the border and using my tax money to put them up in hotels I can’t afford. It’s insane.”
Authorities recently raided open-air prostitution setups over the Nassau county line in Queens – a so-called “Market of Sweethearts,” supposedly run by Venezuelan gangs. Hiram Monserrate, a New York councilman, said “there are more brothels than there are bodegas.”
On Tuesday, Salvadoran MS-13 gang member Leniz Escobar, 24, known as “Diablita” – Little Devil – was sentenced to 50 years behind bars for luring three teens and a young man, members of rival Mexican gang 18th St, to a Long Island park 20 miles away and hacking them to death.
Matt Capp, the campaign spokesman for NY-04’s incumbent Antony D’Esposito, told The Telegraph that “immigration was a major concern but it’s tied with crime.
“This is a commuter district so if New York City sneezes we get sick out here.”
Mr. D’Esposito is also embroiled in ethical questions, including claims of nepotism, after The New York Times reported this month that the Republican candidate added Devin Faas, a woman with whom he was allegedly having an affair, to the county payroll.
Addressing the allegations, Mr. D’Esposito described the claims as “slimy tabloid garbage,” telling the New York Post: “My personal life has never interfered with my ability to deliver results for New York’s 4th district, and I have upheld the highest ethical standards of personal conduct.”
Ms. Faas has declined to comment on the allegations, The New York Times reported.
During his service as a New York cop, he lost his unattended gun and was docked vacation days, as reported by the New York Daily News in 2022. He also moonlighted as a DJ and served alcohol without permission, Rolling Stone reports.
Mr D’Esposito’s opponent Ms. Gillen said: “Who leaves a loaded gun in an unlocked car, unattended, for a criminal to steal?
“D’Esposito is proclaiming himself to be an ‘expert’ on crime, yet he can’t even keep his own gun out of the hands of a criminal.”
Donna Johnson said allegations against Mr. D’Esposito didn’t bother her. “If he does the job, he does the job. All they’re going out and attacking him on are the girlfriends and abortion. Ok, so the man doesn’t want to murder babies.
“That’s fine, but what else do you have?”
Megan McGeary, a resident of the finely politically balanced Long Beach, said she would not vote locally.
“D’Esposito has got a bad history, losing his gun, a drunk driving incident…I’m not voting down ballot, just voting Trump.”
Mr D’Esposito was accused of drunk driving and “disgracing the uniform,” but, according to the New York Daily News, after an investigation by NYPD internal affairs, the claims were never substantiated, meaning they did not move forward.
“I’m pro-choice, so that goes against the whole Trump thing, but he is in favor of letting the states decide and that’s fine with me, but I’m anti-immigration.
“Busing people to New York City was crazy. We don’t need tons of new people pouring into this country. We have our own problems,” Ms. McGeary said, referring to the thousands of migrants sent in buses north by Texas Governor Greg Abbott to so-called “sanctuary cities” like New York, a policy Mayor Adams opposes.
Democrats hope that Ms. Gillen, a former Hempstead town supervisor, can pick up the seat because party members are more likely to vote locally during national election years.
Ms. Gillen has made an appeal on the reproductive rights issue.
Before she lost to Mr. D’Esposito in 2022, she penned a new op-ed in the New York Daily News about her personal experience undergoing a medically necessary abortion procedure after a rare fetal death during her pregnancy.
As she and her husband were leaving the hospital, she wrote: “Anti-choice activists surrounding the clinic were yelling and hurling insults at us.
“We heard everything from ‘You’re a murderer,’ to ‘God will not forgive you.’”
Ms. Gillen, like other Democrats running the state, have dropped their endorsement of the progressive Working Families Party to run with a new centrist “Common Sense” line.
Mr Capp leveled that Ms. Gillen “is trying to play the moderate but once you remove [the] mask she’s a progressive.”